EXTERNAL SECURITY THREATS-PAKISTAN

EXTERNAL SECURITY THREATS

 Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable states in the world. It is bordered with Afghanistan, Iran, China and India. To the south is the Arabian Sea, a gate way to CARS through Gwadar port. Pakistan’s domestic politics remains intimately linked to political relations with Pakistan’s neighbors. The geographical shape and the distributions of its population complicate the defense problem. Pakistan’s security is gravely threatened in recent era as compared to previous threats

External security or security against external aggression is both a civil and military affair. It is military in execution but civil in design. . Defense policy is derived from the foreign policy. Military action is the extreme end of failed diplomacy. The foreign policy of a state is a combination of principles and norms, which guide or determine relations between that state with other states or bodies in the international system. Formulation of foreign policy depends on national interests, actual and potential capabilities and the realities of internal and external environmental. On the other hand, defense policy and posture are dependent on threat assessment, real and perceived threat. The military is insurance for sovereignty based on national grand strategy. National grand strategy can be equated to the African stool which stands on three equal legs. TheThree legs are politics, economy and military. The stool then, exists within an environment and composition of society. The role of the military is basically defense against external aggression. Secondary roles include assistance to civil power in the maintenance of law and order and the show of national pride.

The military is a national flag carrier and a pride of a nation. The tradition of guards of honor, parades, fly pasts and shows of power are a display of authority and a show of who is in control.

Some external opportunist elements like the US, India, Afghanistan and Israel are in collusion as part of a plot to ‘destabilize’ Pakistan for their common strategic interests. It was due to new subversive acts of the militants in the tribal areas, backed by American CIA, Indian RAW, Afghan Khad and Israeli Mossad that Prime Minister Gilani has disclosed that there were “several enemies of the country” and “foreign hands were also involved in the acts of terrorism”.

As regards RAW, more than 50 Indian foreign offices, established along with the north-western border of Pakistan are supporting the militants not only in the Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, but also Baluchistan where a minority group called the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) has been waging a separatist war in southwestern Pakistan with the aid of RAW and CIA. Bugti’s death was a blow to neo-BLA, but this group’s external backers did not stop their aggressive activities.AfterBugti’s death his grandson, Brahmdagh Bugti is currently operating against Pakistan from Kabul.

Another Indian-backed separatist group, calling their militants Jundollah (God’s soldiers) is also working against the cordial relationship of China and Iran with Pakistan.

Taliban

The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist political movement in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The movement originates from Afghan refugees living in northern Pakistan.It spread into Afghanistan and formed a government, ruling as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from September 1996 although our security forces are successfully coping with the Taliban militants in some tribal areas. Now subversive events like targeted killings, attacks on building etc. have intensified in the province. In this drastic scenario, external hands have succeeded in inciting the general masses of Baluchistan to oppose country’s federation through Bloch feudal lords. Notably, Pakistan’s civil and military high officials have openly been revealing that Indian secret agency, RAW, Israeli Mossad and other foreign agencies are involved in supporting separatism in Baluchistan.

Military and police confirmed the reports that Taliban have made plan to attack on the nuclear installations of Pakistan in Dera Ghazi Khan. The Army and Punjab police have deployed heavy forces at one of Pakistan’s largest nuclear facilities in Dera Ghazi Khan.

DG Khan houses one of the largest nuclear facilities in the country, and has faced the first-ever serious security threat from the Tehreek-e-Taliban, said a high ranking military officer currently serving at the installation.

Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda is a global militant Islamist organization founded by Osama bin Laden at some point between August 1988 and  1989 ,with its origins being traceable to the Soviet War in Afghanistan. It operates as a network comprising both a multinational, stateless army and a radical Sunni Muslim movement calling for global Jihad and a strict interpretation of sharia law. It has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations Security Council, NATO, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and various other countries. Al-Qaeda has carried out several attacks on non-Muslims,and other targets it considers kafir.Pakistan faces many threats from Al-Qaeda affecting its national security.

India

The creation of India and Pakistan gave birth to many thorny issues between the neighboring countries. Kashmir issue remains at the top of the list. Other issues like water issue, Siachen, Afghanistan are now lingering over the years. Terrorism and security are the other emerging issues. Both the countries have fought three wars. Due to trust deficit, both the countries have remained at loggerheads with each other. India has remained the most threatening neighbor for Pakistan. And according to a survey Pakistani considers India a bigger threat than Al-Qaeda. The borders with India are always in great risks of escalation. There is always a possibility of nuclear war which can place Pakistan in a hopeless strategic position. The threat from India today is an internal as well as ranging from failed governance, mismanagement of the country’s economy to the war against terrorism. 

It is of particular attention that Pakistan’s forces have already broken the backbone of the militants in Swat, Dir, Bunir and South Waziristan, but American demands are increasing. Here, it is mentionable that Pakistan is the only nuclear country in the Islamic world. Therefore, India and Israel with the tactical support of America are creating instability in the country. In this regard, Indo-Israeli lobbies are working in the US and other western countries in order to malign Islamabad. Particularly, with the help of American media, these lobbies are propagating that the next terror-plan to attack the US homeland will be prepared in Pakistan.

Pakistan has also been embroiled in the never-ending militaristic, propagandistic, and diplomatic onslaught by the traditional nemesis India.

During the last ten years India has invested heavily in air power, and today IAF's high technology combat and strike capability is more than seven times that of the PAF. The numerical imbalance is three to one. In a recent interview to Defense Journal the Chief of the Air Staff PAF has rightly stated that, Importance of air power is fully recognized by all countries.

Those who closely monitor Indian defense and foreign policy understand very well that India always attempts to harm Pakistani interests whenever any opportunity arises. India has and will always try to stab Pakistan in the back. Majority of Pakistanis understand the sinister Indian designs and also realize that any moves to normalize the relations between the two countries hold no real value for if a country’s defense and ideological doctrine is based on damaging your country and threatening your very existence, then peace is nothing more than wishful thinking.

The pragmatic and patriotic elements in Pakistan understand the Indian subversive activities being carried out in Pakistan. There is irrefutable evidence that India has been trying to destabilize Pakistan and therefore no talk of peace can be taken seriously by a neighbor that spends billions in trying to harm your country.

Israel

The transformation of Israel from a midget to an ugly giant is in the making. The grand design of Zionist expansionism is to seize all the oil-rich lands from the shores of the Euphrates.
The Americans as usual will blindly support Israel like a slave fulfills every wish of his master however before Israel can impose another war it has a problem that is still stopping it from moving ahead. This problem is neither Iran nor Syria it is the nuclear deterrence of Pakistan, plus the advance missile technology and highly well-trained and ideologically-motivated Pakistan armed forces.

Israel has always tried to sabotage the Pakistani nuclear program but miserably failed; now it is trying again through the Americans who have staged the Osama drama to put pressure on Pakistan and create a serious threat to its nuclear installations. The US at the behest of Israel is using its corporate media to spread negative propaganda about the safety of the Pakistani nuclear assets and some reports have even suggested that if things were to become volatile in Pakistan, the Americans will physically move in to secure the nuclear assets. This is easier said than done and the Pakistan Armed forces have made all the contingency plans to counter such nefarious US designs.

Israel understands that unlike the easy targets in the Middle East, Pakistan not only has the strategic arsenal but also the capability of posing a serious threat to Israel’s future hegemonic plans in the region. The humiliating defeat that the Americans now clearly see in Afghanistan is making Israel panic and pushing it towards a new misadventure.

Afghanistan

Soviet-backed and protected Afghanistan introduced many disturbing elements into Pakistan's security environment. First, the invasion has generated fears and apprehension among many Pakistanis that their country would be the next target. Many Pakistanis believe that after consolidating its position in Afghanistan, Moscow will try to extend its influence beyond the Afghan borders. The argument that the Soviets are likely to use Afghanistan as a spring-board to destabilize Pakistan in order to gain much-desired access to a warm-water port on the Indian Ocean, is still held valid by a sizable number of Pakistanis. Since Pakistan is sandwiched between Soviet-occupied Afghanistan and India, such anxieties do not seem too farfetched, especially if viewed within the context of past Soviet attitudes towards Pakistan.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have much in common. But the relations between these two countries, bound by historical and geographical links, have not been peaceful but rather have been marked by hostility since 1947. Problems like Durand line, demand of Pashtoonistan, soviet invasion, smuggling of arms, migration of Afghans have been the biggest dilemma for Pakistan’s security. Refugees have also been threat for the law and order situation. Furthermore, it has given birth to the Taliban ideology in Pakistan, which has far-reaching consequences on Pakistan’s sovereignty. In addition to all this the incident of 9/11 also left its indelible impacts and gave rise to terrorism which has become the biggest threat to Pakistan’s survival. 

America

After the incident of 9/11, The US launched a so-called war on terror. Since then, Pakistan has been US ally in this war. This war has played havoc with Pakistan. It has claimed the lives of 35,000 innocent people and soldiers. US’ frequent unilateral actions through drones in Pakistan’s territory are a grave threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty. Pakistan’s involvement in war on terror has given the US a free license to interfere in Pakistan’s matters. Such involvement in internal issues and policies of Pakistan is giving rise to anti-Americanism among the masses. A national consensus seems to be emerging against American involvement and attacks. . Ironically, Pakistan is still an ally of the United States in the on-going Global War on Terror and receives billion in assistance from it. Perceptions matter and the widespread distrust on both sides are to be acknowledged and dealt with in an open frank manner. The United States and Pakistan are hardly allies anymore.

Today, there is widespread belief in Pakistan that the most immediate threat to the country's nuclear assets comes from the United States.

It is obvious to the world that the American military industrial complex like all the previous empires that tried to conquer Afghanistan are failing and now looking for a face-saving exit. The staged hoax at Abbottabad was also done for this purpose so that the American president can tell his people "the mission’ has been accomplished".

The US wants to damage Pakistan before it leaves Afghanistan. In addition, it still dreams of somehow causing harm to Pakistan' nuclear deterrence and it is for this purpose that the CIA has been stabbing Pakistan in the back and playing a double game with the ISI. 

Global war on terror

Pakistan has, over the past some years, become the flashpoint as well as the most important country in the Global War on Terror.

Geo-Political Location

Pakistan is in an unenviable geo-politically strategic location and is the sole Islamic nuclear power. It also borders China, India, Iran, and Afghanistan and thus any vibrations from these countries are strongly experienced within the borders of this nation. Pakistan`s international commitments to the Coalition Forces has put a disastrous dent in the already-strapped financial resources of the country.

Proxy war

Pakistan has also, for many decades, become involved in a proxy war between the two major sects of Islam. This has primarily been supported by Saudi Arabia and Iran thru financial resources, thru ideological guidance, and thru tapping of the myopic approach of the clergy of both the sects in Pakistan. This has also intensified with the rise of militancy and extremism that has played havoc with the peaceful internal environment of Pakistan.

Impact of external Threats

Strategic relations with China

In the entire Osama saga, China was the one country that stood by Pakistan and not only sent the US a clear message on what it thought of the violation of Pakistan's sovereignty but also stepped up visible physical support by announcing the supply of fifty JF-17 Thunder fighter.
In addition, Pakistan and China have also decided to conduct joint military exercises in China’s province.
The support from China has historical reasons but there are also strategic reasons why it will be permanent and unaffected by any changes in the international scene; when a US delegate once confronted a Chinese diplomat about Beijing's unconditional support for Pakistan, the Chinese responded with a befitting sarcastic remark: "Pakistan is our Israel". This phrase explains the whole back ground to the Pakistan-China relationship; the Pakistani nation must value this support and use it to counter the moves being made by our hidden and obvious enemies.

The Russian factor

Russia and Pakistan are expanding their cooperation, with a package of recent agreements on a number of key directions such as energy, transport and agriculture, signed at a summit in Moscowrecently.
There are also reports that Pakistan is in talks with Russia for purchasing fighter aircraft. This is a good move to reduce dependence on American weapons and must be pursued successfully and swiftly. Finally, it is also a positive sign that China and Russia have also agreed to promote the sustained growth of their strategic partnership over the next decade.

Safeguarding the nuclear arsenal from external threats is a national responsibility taken very seriously by Pakistan military. Meanwhile, Pakistan has taken steps to protect its nuclear assets from external threats.

The Pakistani military must give a clear signal to the United States that any attack on Pakistan's nuclear assets would be met by an appropriate response. It has to clearly threaten immediate retaliation against United States assets in Afghanistan. The nation would surely support this boldness against America. Meanwhile, it has to be prepared for the worst case scenario and undertake immediate measures to secure the nuclear warheads.

Pakistan has achieved a lot in the military field and needs to consolidate its technical accomplishments in building an awesome nuclear arsenal quickly enough. Meanwhile, Pakistan's enemies beware. Nuclear weapons have to be protected at all costs no matter how high. Their safety is not just a concern for the country's military but the entire nation.

 It is unfortunate that the political leadership has failed to recognize the threats to Pakistan’s existence. It lacks the capacity to counter them. Besides this, the ruling elite’s quest for power and wealth only seems to be its focus of interest. Thus, the onus to find solutions for the existing problems lies with those whose primary task is to ensure the security and integrity of the state. Nevertheless, to get the country out of the present mess, we certainly need to follow the teachings of Islam and the saying of Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah.