IMPACT OF WAR ON
TERROR ON PAKISTAN
Terrorism is considered
by some to be a form of war but without the rule of conventional
conflicts.Terrorism has existed for centuries as a means of making a government
or a group aware of a desire that they have to change something by creating
destruction and fear. However, this terrorism has taken a new level from
september 2001.
In the region of South
Asia, Pakistan has the most delicate strategic position.The event of Russian
invasion in Afghanistan during cold war period and in the post cold war era, the other world shaking event,
the terrorist attack on world trade centre have witnessed these developments
profoundly affected Pakistan strategic position.The incident of 9/11 affects
the Pakistan’s defense and strategic concerns, its national cohesion , domestic
stability and economic condition.
In the wake of 9/11
incident, once again Pakistan gets the status of front line state, because
immediately after the attacks on world trade centre the US government approach
Pakistan and presented stark choices. It had to make either common cause with
Washington in its war against terrorism suspected terrorist bin laden and his
al-qaeda network based in Afghanistan with the support of Taliban regime or the second option to
persist with its Pro-Taliban Afghan Policies and live with international
condemnation and isolation from rest of the world. Washington gave Pakistan
twenty four hour to decide, whether it would be on America’s side or not and
according to a news report on the next day September 13, President General
Prevaiz Muharraf gave green signal to the state department that Pakistan would
extend its “ unstinted cooperation” to the international coalition against
terrorism .
After the higher
official meeting President of Pakistan General Prevail Musharraf addressed the nation and presented his
policies which were completely reversed direction. In his television address to
the nation on September 19, 2001 he clarified the policies resulted in the withdrawl
of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban government in Afghanistan and extended
cooperation with USA. Through this
speech, he also presented his new strategy to safeguard’s Pakistan national
interests based on four key objectives. These were security, protection of
Pakistani nuclear assets, settlement of Kashmir dispute and long term economic
development.
After the US
attack, flux compelled the people of
Afghanistan to get refuge in Pakistan ; they have centuries old linkages with
Pakistani tribal areas and here they moved freely. In this back drop Taliban
and Al-Qaeda remnants also found refuge in these areas. This was the starting
point of dark ages for Pakistan .
Impact of this war is
multidimensional for example it has
political , social, national security and most importantly economical impact.
These dimensions are closely interlinked with eachother as shown in figure1.
Failure at one front raises the probability of failure on all fronts.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
Since 9/11 more than 80
countries have been subjected to economic terrorism. The incident of 9/11
greatly affects Pakistan’s defense and economic conditions. Frequent succide
bombing is the main cause of spreading of economic terrorism in Pakistan.
EFFECT OF ECONOMIC
TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN:
§ In
2009, pakistan’s GDP rate remained 3%.
§ The
inflation in pakistan is high i.e 18.85%.
§ Pakistan
is spending alot of money in counterterrorist activities.
§ On
the name of war on terror, pakistan suffered loss of 2080 billion dollars.
§ Pakistan
cannot maintain its economy by itself is now depending on foreign aids.
§ In
2009, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) could not improve and fell steeply by 52%.
STATE OF ECONOMY:
Pakistan
economy has faced with many challenges see figure 3,3.1 and 3.2.
§ Slow
down of economic growth.
§ Decline
in investment.
§ High
inflation.
§ High
level of fiscal and current account deficits.
§ Dislocation
of economic activity.
ECONOMIC COST OF WAR ON TERRORISM
The cost of
participation in the war on terror are rising exponentially in terms of:
§ Dislocation
of economic activities.
§ Damages
to property.
§ Investment
climate.
§ Slow
down of overall economy.
§ Losses
of human life.
§ Higher
expenditure on defense and police.
In
2007-08 according to IPP(institute of public policy) the economic cost on war
on terror were 380 billion see figure5. SPDC(social policy and economic
development Centre)updated these estimates for the year 2009-10 and identified
290 billion additional expenditure. SPDC also identified that government
incraesing the expenditure related to security with an average of 14.6% from
2000-01 to 2007-08 annually. This percentage have increased to 20.5% per year
after 2007-08 see the figure 4.
POLITICAL IMPACT
§ Tightening
of border security and immigration clearence.
§ Couterterrorism
legislation that infringe on individual freedom and personal privacy.
Terrorism /
talibinization destroyed local, political and judicial structures in FATA and
Malakand region.the tribal areas of Pakistan are governed by Frontier Crime Regulation(FCR).In
practice, the local disputes are settled in Jirgas that work in tandem with
political agents appointed by federal government 58% men and 32% women
mentioned the breakdown of Jirga system and traditional patterns of leadership
as the political consequences of terrorism/talibinization.Talibans killed
hundreds of local elders. This disturbed the political balance in FATA.The
presence of military in FATA in post 9/11 also undermined the authority of
political agents the power of jirga and political agents has been assumed by
taliban commanders.It was reported that in the beginning of taliban control
over their areas.They were able to dispense speedy justice to the poor against
the local influential.people were taking their disputes to taliban for
resolution. However, very soon the taliban started misusing their power.They
started intimidating people that led to disllusionment and loss of support for
taliban.The influence of political parties were severely reduced. Political
parties were not able to operate in Swat. Political representatives of Swat and
FATA could not visit their own consistency due to fear of taliban.Women are
traditionally excluded from political decision making structures in conflict
areas.Women councillors were subjected to harassment. A women councillor from
Dir who was active and very vocal was murdered.
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS ON POLITICAL LEADERSHIP
§ LT.General Mushtaq Ahmed Baig
the surgeon general of army medical corps killed by Al-Qaeda on sep 11,2001.
§ In
DEC 2003, saw two assassination attempts on president Musharraf.
§ An
equally serious attempt in july 2004 on then prime minister
Mr.SHAUKAT AZIZ.
§ The
interior minister is targeted twice during 2007.
§ Succide
attacks inside Pakistan increases many folds during 2007.
§ Former
prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated DEC 27,2007 in Rawalpindi
by Baitullah Masood and Al-Qaeda.
§ Recently
senior minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour was assassinated in DEC 22,2012 in
Peshawar after attending his public meeting by Qaladum Tuneem Tehreeq-e-Taliban
Pakistan.
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR IN PAKISTAN
VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY
§ In
this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 20.9.
§ Regional
average percentile is 32.8.
§ Governance
score (-2.5 to +2.5)of Pakistan is -1.00.
§ Standard
error = 0.12.
POLITICAL STABILITY
§ In
this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 0.5.
§ Regional
average percentile is 18.7.
§ Governance
score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -2.76.
§ Standard
error = 0.22.
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
§ In
this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 19.
§ Regional
average percentile is 33.5
§ Governance
score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.93.
§ Standard
error = 0.18.
REGULATORY QUALITY
§ In
this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 33.3.
§ Regional
average percentile is 27.7.
§ Governance
score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.50.
§ Standard
error = 0.16.
RULE OF LAW
§ In
this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile is 19.3.
§ Regional
average percentile is 35.8.
§ Governance
score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.93.
§ Standard
error = 0.14.
CONTROL OF COORUPTION
§ In
this indicator , Pakistan’s percentile rank is 13.3.
§ Regional
average percentile is 31.6.
§ Governance
score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -1.10.
§ Standard
error = 0.17.
See figure 2
SOCIAL IMPACT
§ Increase
in disable people.
§ Increase
in spending on health.
§ Effect
on society (consumption, life style).
§ Cost
of education rise because of security expenditure which will increase unskilled
labour
§ Injustice,
illiteracy, dissatisfaction among people.
§ Poverty
and unemployment is prevailing.
§ Food
insecurity.
The
end sufferer of terrorism is general public. It is general consensus among the
social scientists that human corruption and conflicts cannot be done away from
the society. The human conflicts results in the form of violence or
terrorism.The repercussions of terrorism are very serious for the masses. No
doubt, the terrorism not only directly effects the economic development and
prosperity but psycho-social repercussions and heavily damage human personality
and the society.The effects of terrorism may vary from different persons to
different societies. But here, we discuss the general repercussions that harm
individual and society accumulatively.
§ Terrorism
creates the sense of fear in the minds of people. This fear further leads to
sense of dissatisfaction and terror
among the people.
§ Due
to terrorism sense of helplessness prevails in human minds. This sense of
helplessness further leads to hopelessness among the people regarding their
personal and social well-being.
§ The violent acts of terrorism badly damage the mental growth of human beings and
put them into constant stressful situation. Such attacks especially leaves
harmful and far reaching effects on the minds of children when they see dead
bodies and horrible scenes of terrorism.
§ The
constant terrorists acts bring about the reason of losing trust and cohesion of
people on government and state. It enhances anger and resentment among the
masses against the government and the state apparatus.
Conclusion
Pakistan a country of
170 million population and seventh largest army in the world is the frontline
state in the war against terrorism. It has suffered huge setbacks in this war
but despite all such setbacks and troubles it has faced nuisance of terrorism and
extremism with full vigor and zeal. After 9 year of war, Pakistan still is in
the dilemma of terrorism and extremism. Major hurdle in fighting such warfare
is the lack of adequate resources and training to Pakistan military. The war in
terrorism set back the pakistan in the race of development. Today major
industries of pakistan like textile, engineering and agriculture migrating to
other countries. And also multinational companies are not feeling safe place
for business in the Pakistan.
We
have briefly discussed the threats being faced by Pakistan. The situation is
critical and the response has to be befitting to reduce the threat level. It
must be understood that a dangerous game is being played by these states, led
by our so-called friend and ally, the United States of America. The majority of
the people of Pakistan understand that the US has been an enemy in the guise of
a friend and stabbing us in the back along with India while Israel has been
playing its role by its lobby's influence in the US.
Nuclear Deterrence
The
Pakistani nuclear program has gone from strength to strength, and Pakistan has
also now ensured that it has the means of sustaining a surprise attack and
still manage to retaliate by deploying a second strike capability. In this
regard the key achievements are:
>
Pakistan now has deeply buried storage and launch facilities to retain a second
strike capability in a nuclear war.
>
In terms of the delivery mechanism (in case the weapons need to be used),
Pakistan has multiple means delivery: Fighter aircraft of Pakistan Air Force
and surface-to-surface missiles controlled by the Pakistan Army.
>
Pakistan has also accelerated its own missile development program and now has
various types of ballistic missiles which are capable of carrying nuclear
payloads. Pakistan is also developing nuclear-capable cruise missiles with
ground, sea and air-launched versions. Pakistan continues to carry out
ballistic missile tests after regular intervals.
Nuclear Doctrine
Pakistan’s
Nuclear Doctrine is formulated to counter the Indian threat and given the level
and nature of this threat, Pakistan maintains the option of first-strike. In
other words in case of aggression by India, we retain the option to use nuclear
weapons first, even if the attack is with conventional weapons. Pakistan's
nuclear policy is clear that a “minimum credible deterrent” must be
maintained again as a deterrent to Indian military threat.
Pakistan
is facing unprecedented threats from multiples sources. The situation is
extremely sensitive and volatile and the response has to be carefully
calculated and managed. An emotional or hasty response can compromise the
national interest and our strategic assets. The ISI and the armed forces
confront the enemies. The nation must wise up and avoid falling into the trap
being laid by the enemy. Vicious media campaigns, half-baked truths and
twisted facts are being used not only by the American and Zionist media but
also by their agents planted in our local media houses. People must not accept
all the news given to them on popular channels. They have to make the effort of
corroborating news and information from independent sources to understand the
complete picture. Partial truth is often as dangerous as total lies; twisted
news is often made up of facts mixed with some fictional elements.The nation
must be ready to face any threatening development and everyone must stand firm
with the Armed forces.
Police
should participate actively in controlling the crimes; they are participating
to some extent by arresting the criminals and those who are threats to our
national integrity. In Karachi police arrested many target killers. There
should be high security for ordinary people as well.
We
must believe in this quote of founder of Pakistan, M.A. Jinnah:
“Pakistan
has come to stay and no power on earth can destroy it”.
