IMPACT OF WAR ON TERROR ON PAKISTAN

Terrorism is considered by some to be a form of war but without the rule of conventional conflicts.Terrorism has existed for centuries as a means of making a government or a group aware of a desire that they have to change something by creating destruction and fear. However, this terrorism has taken a new level from september 2001.

In the region of South Asia, Pakistan has the most delicate strategic position.The event of Russian invasion in Afghanistan during cold war period and in the post  cold war era, the other world shaking event, the terrorist attack on world trade centre have witnessed these developments profoundly affected Pakistan strategic position.The incident of 9/11 affects the Pakistan’s defense and strategic concerns, its national cohesion , domestic stability and economic condition.

In the wake of 9/11 incident, once again Pakistan gets the status of front line state, because immediately after the attacks on world trade centre the US government approach Pakistan and presented stark choices. It had to make either common cause with Washington in its war against terrorism suspected terrorist bin laden and his al-qaeda network based in Afghanistan with the support of  Taliban regime or the second option to persist with its Pro-Taliban Afghan Policies and live with international condemnation and isolation from rest of the world. Washington gave Pakistan twenty four hour to decide, whether it would be on America’s side or not and according to a news report on the next day September 13, President General Prevaiz Muharraf gave green signal to the state department that Pakistan would extend its “ unstinted cooperation” to the international coalition against terrorism .

After the higher official meeting President of Pakistan General Prevail Musharraf  addressed the nation and presented his policies which were completely reversed direction. In his television address to the nation on September 19, 2001 he clarified the policies resulted in the withdrawl of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban government in Afghanistan and extended cooperation  with USA. Through this speech, he also presented his new strategy to safeguard’s Pakistan national interests based on four key objectives. These were security, protection of Pakistani nuclear assets, settlement of Kashmir dispute and long term economic development.

After the US attack,  flux compelled the people of Afghanistan to get refuge in Pakistan ; they have centuries old linkages with Pakistani tribal areas and here they moved freely. In this back drop Taliban and Al-Qaeda remnants also found refuge in these areas. This was the starting point of dark ages for Pakistan .

Impact of this war is multidimensional  for example it has political , social, national security and most importantly economical impact. These dimensions are closely interlinked with eachother as shown in figure1. Failure at one front raises the probability of failure on all fronts.

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Since 9/11 more than 80 countries have been subjected to economic terrorism. The incident of 9/11 greatly affects Pakistan’s defense and economic conditions. Frequent succide bombing is the main cause of spreading of economic terrorism in Pakistan.

EFFECT OF ECONOMIC TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN:

§  In 2009, pakistan’s GDP rate remained 3%.

§  The inflation in pakistan is high i.e 18.85%.

§  Pakistan is spending alot of money in counterterrorist activities.

§  On the name of war on terror, pakistan suffered loss of 2080 billion dollars.

§  Pakistan cannot maintain its economy by itself is now depending on foreign aids.

§  In 2009, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) could not improve and fell steeply by 52%.

STATE OF ECONOMY:

Pakistan economy has faced with many challenges see figure 3,3.1 and 3.2.

§  Slow down of economic growth.

§  Decline in investment.

§  High inflation.

§  High level of fiscal and current account deficits.

§  Dislocation of economic activity.

ECONOMIC COST OF WAR ON TERRORISM

The cost of participation in the war on terror are rising exponentially in terms of:

§  Dislocation of economic activities.

§  Damages to property.

§  Investment climate.

§  Slow down of overall economy.

§  Losses of human life.

§  Higher expenditure on defense and police.

In 2007-08 according to IPP(institute of public policy) the economic cost on war on terror were 380 billion see figure5. SPDC(social policy and economic development Centre)updated these estimates for the year 2009-10 and identified 290 billion additional expenditure. SPDC also identified that government incraesing the expenditure related to security with an average of 14.6% from 2000-01 to 2007-08 annually. This percentage have increased to 20.5% per year after 2007-08 see the figure 4.

POLITICAL IMPACT

§  Tightening of border security and immigration clearence.

§  Couterterrorism legislation that infringe on individual freedom and personal privacy.

Terrorism / talibinization destroyed local, political and judicial structures in FATA and Malakand region.the tribal areas of Pakistan are governed by Frontier Crime Regulation(FCR).In practice, the local disputes are settled in Jirgas that work in tandem with political agents appointed by federal government 58% men and 32% women mentioned the breakdown of Jirga system and traditional patterns of leadership as the political consequences of terrorism/talibinization.Talibans killed hundreds of local elders. This disturbed the political balance in FATA.The presence of military in FATA in post 9/11 also undermined the authority of political agents the power of jirga and political agents has been assumed by taliban commanders.It was reported that in the beginning of taliban control over their areas.They were able to dispense speedy justice to the poor against the local influential.people were taking their disputes to taliban for resolution. However, very soon the taliban started misusing their power.They started intimidating people that led to disllusionment and loss of support for taliban.The influence of political parties were severely reduced. Political parties were not able to operate in Swat. Political representatives of Swat and FATA could not visit their own consistency due to fear of taliban.Women are traditionally excluded from political decision making structures in conflict areas.Women councillors were subjected to harassment. A women councillor from Dir who was active and very vocal was murdered.

 ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS ON POLITICAL LEADERSHIP

§  LT.General Mushtaq Ahmed Baig the surgeon general of army medical corps killed by Al-Qaeda on sep 11,2001.

§  In DEC 2003, saw two assassination attempts on president Musharraf.

§  An equally serious attempt in july 2004 on then prime minister Mr.SHAUKAT AZIZ.

§  The interior minister is targeted twice during 2007.

§  Succide attacks inside Pakistan increases many folds during 2007.

§  Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated DEC 27,2007 in Rawalpindi by Baitullah Masood and Al-Qaeda.

§  Recently senior minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour was assassinated in DEC 22,2012 in Peshawar after attending his public meeting by Qaladum Tuneem Tehreeq-e-Taliban Pakistan.

GOVERNANCE INDICATOR IN PAKISTAN

VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 20.9.

§  Regional average percentile is 32.8.

§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5)of Pakistan is -1.00.

§  Standard error = 0.12.

POLITICAL STABILITY

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 0.5.

§  Regional average percentile is 18.7.

§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -2.76.

§  Standard error = 0.22.

GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 19.

§  Regional average percentile is 33.5

§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.93.

§  Standard error = 0.18.

REGULATORY QUALITY

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 33.3.

§  Regional average percentile is 27.7.

§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.50.

§  Standard error = 0.16.

RULE OF LAW

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile is 19.3.

§  Regional average percentile is 35.8.

§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.93.

§  Standard error = 0.14.

CONTROL OF COORUPTION

§  In this indicator , Pakistan’s percentile rank is 13.3.

§  Regional average percentile is 31.6.

§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -1.10.

§  Standard error = 0.17.

See figure 2

SOCIAL IMPACT

§  Increase in disable people.

§  Increase in spending on health.

§  Effect on society (consumption, life style).

§  Cost of education rise because of security expenditure which will increase unskilled labour                                                            

§  Injustice, illiteracy, dissatisfaction among people.

§  Poverty and unemployment is prevailing.

§  Food insecurity.

The end sufferer of terrorism is general public. It is general consensus among the social scientists that human corruption and conflicts cannot be done away from the society. The human conflicts results in the form of violence or terrorism.The repercussions of terrorism are very serious for the masses. No doubt, the terrorism not only directly effects the economic development and prosperity but psycho-social repercussions and heavily damage human personality and the society.The effects of terrorism may vary from different persons to different societies. But here, we discuss the general repercussions that harm individual and society accumulatively.

§  Terrorism creates the sense of fear in the minds of people. This fear further leads to sense of  dissatisfaction and terror among the people.

§  Due to terrorism sense of helplessness prevails in human minds. This sense of helplessness further leads to hopelessness among the people regarding their personal and social well-being.

§  The violent acts of terrorism badly damage the mental growth of human beings and put them into constant stressful situation. Such attacks especially leaves harmful and far reaching effects on the minds of children when they see dead bodies and horrible scenes of terrorism.

§  The constant terrorists acts bring about the reason of losing trust and cohesion of people on government and state. It enhances anger and resentment among the masses against the government and the state apparatus.

Conclusion

Pakistan a country of 170 million population and seventh largest army in the world is the frontline state in the war against terrorism. It has suffered huge setbacks in this war but despite all such setbacks and troubles it has faced nuisance of terrorism and extremism with full vigor and zeal. After 9 year of war, Pakistan still is in the dilemma of terrorism and extremism. Major hurdle in fighting such warfare is the lack of adequate resources and training to Pakistan military. The war in terrorism set back the pakistan in the race of development. Today major industries of pakistan like textile, engineering and agriculture migrating to other countries. And also multinational companies are not feeling safe place for business in the Pakistan.

We have briefly discussed the threats being faced by Pakistan. The situation is critical and the response has to be befitting to reduce the threat level. It must be understood that a dangerous game is being played by these states, led by our so-called friend and ally, the United States of America. The majority of the people of Pakistan understand that the US has been an enemy in the guise of a friend and stabbing us in the back along with India while Israel has been playing its role by its lobby's influence in the US.

Nuclear Deterrence

The Pakistani nuclear program has gone from strength to strength, and Pakistan has also now ensured that it has the means of sustaining a surprise attack and still manage to retaliate by deploying a second strike capability. In this regard the key achievements are:

> Pakistan now has deeply buried storage and launch facilities to retain a second strike capability in a nuclear war. 

> In terms of the delivery mechanism (in case the weapons need to be used), Pakistan has multiple means delivery: Fighter aircraft of Pakistan Air Force and surface-to-surface missiles controlled by the Pakistan Army. 

> Pakistan has also accelerated its own missile development program and now has various types of ballistic missiles which are capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Pakistan is also developing nuclear-capable cruise missiles with ground, sea and air-launched versions. Pakistan continues to carry out ballistic missile tests after regular intervals.

Nuclear Doctrine

Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine is formulated to counter the Indian threat and given the level and nature of this threat, Pakistan maintains the option of first-strike. In other words in case of aggression by India, we retain the option to use nuclear weapons first, even if the attack is with conventional weapons. Pakistan's nuclear policy is clear that a “minimum credible deterrent” must be maintained again as a deterrent to Indian military threat.

Pakistan is facing unprecedented threats from multiples sources. The situation is extremely sensitive and volatile and the response has to be carefully calculated and managed. An emotional or hasty response can compromise the national interest and our strategic assets. The ISI and the armed forces confront the enemies. The nation must wise up and avoid falling into the trap being laid by the enemy. Vicious media campaigns, half-baked truths and twisted facts are being used not only by the American and Zionist media but also by their agents planted in our local media houses. People must not accept all the news given to them on popular channels. They have to make the effort of corroborating news and information from independent sources to understand the complete picture. Partial truth is often as dangerous as total lies; twisted news is often made up of facts mixed with some fictional elements.The nation must be ready to face any threatening development and everyone must stand firm with the Armed forces. 

Police should participate actively in controlling the crimes; they are participating to some extent by arresting the criminals and those who are threats to our national integrity. In Karachi police arrested many target killers. There should be high security for ordinary people as well.

We must believe in this quote of founder of Pakistan, M.A. Jinnah:

“Pakistan has come to stay and no power on earth can destroy it”.