Monday 9 March 2015

IMPACT OF WAR ON TERROR ON PAKISTAN

IMPACT OF WAR ON TERROR ON PAKISTAN

Terrorism is considered by some to be a form of war but without the rule of conventional conflicts.Terrorism has existed for centuries as a means of making a government or a group aware of a desire that they have to change something by creating destruction and fear. However, this terrorism has taken a new level from september 2001.
In the region of South Asia, Pakistan has the most delicate strategic position.The event of Russian invasion in Afghanistan during cold war period and in the post  cold war era, the other world shaking event, the terrorist attack on world trade centre have witnessed these developments profoundly affected Pakistan strategic position.The incident of 9/11 affects the Pakistan’s defense and strategic concerns, its national cohesion , domestic stability and economic condition.
In the wake of 9/11 incident, once again Pakistan gets the status of front line state, because immediately after the attacks on world trade centre the US government approach Pakistan and presented stark choices. It had to make either common cause with Washington in its war against terrorism suspected terrorist bin laden and his al-qaeda network based in Afghanistan with the support of  Taliban regime or the second option to persist with its Pro-Taliban Afghan Policies and live with international condemnation and isolation from rest of the world. Washington gave Pakistan twenty four hour to decide, whether it would be on America’s side or not and according to a news report on the next day September 13, President General Prevaiz Muharraf gave green signal to the state department that Pakistan would extend its “ unstinted cooperation” to the international coalition against terrorism .
After the higher official meeting President of Pakistan General Prevail Musharraf  addressed the nation and presented his policies which were completely reversed direction. In his television address to the nation on September 19, 2001 he clarified the policies resulted in the withdrawl of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban government in Afghanistan and extended cooperation  with USA. Through this speech, he also presented his new strategy to safeguard’s Pakistan national interests based on four key objectives. These were security, protection of Pakistani nuclear assets, settlement of Kashmir dispute and long term economic development.
After the US attack,  flux compelled the people of Afghanistan to get refuge in Pakistan ; they have centuries old linkages with Pakistani tribal areas and here they moved freely. In this back drop Taliban and Al-Qaeda remnants also found refuge in these areas. This was the starting point of dark ages for Pakistan .
Impact of this war is multidimensional  for example it has political , social, national security and most importantly economical impact. These dimensions are closely interlinked with eachother as shown in figure1. Failure at one front raises the probability of failure on all fronts.

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Since 9/11 more than 80 countries have been subjected to economic terrorism. The incident of 9/11 greatly affects Pakistan’s defense and economic conditions. Frequent succide bombing is the main cause of spreading of economic terrorism in Pakistan.

EFFECT OF ECONOMIC TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN:

§  In 2009, pakistan’s GDP rate remained 3%.
§  The inflation in pakistan is high i.e 18.85%.
§  Pakistan is spending alot of money in counterterrorist activities.
§  On the name of war on terror, pakistan suffered loss of 2080 billion dollars.
§  Pakistan cannot maintain its economy by itself is now depending on foreign aids.
§  In 2009, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) could not improve and fell steeply by 52%.

STATE OF ECONOMY:

Pakistan economy has faced with many challenges see figure 3,3.1 and 3.2.
§  Slow down of economic growth.
§  Decline in investment.
§  High inflation.
§  High level of fiscal and current account deficits.
§  Dislocation of economic activity.

ECONOMIC COST OF WAR ON TERRORISM

The cost of participation in the war on terror are rising exponentially in terms of:
§  Dislocation of economic activities.
§  Damages to property.
§  Investment climate.
§  Slow down of overall economy.
§  Losses of human life.
§  Higher expenditure on defense and police.
In 2007-08 according to IPP(institute of public policy) the economic cost on war on terror were 380 billion see figure5. SPDC(social policy and economic development Centre)updated these estimates for the year 2009-10 and identified 290 billion additional expenditure. SPDC also identified that government incraesing the expenditure related to security with an average of 14.6% from 2000-01 to 2007-08 annually. This percentage have increased to 20.5% per year after 2007-08 see the figure 4.

POLITICAL IMPACT

§  Tightening of border security and immigration clearence.
§  Couterterrorism legislation that infringe on individual freedom and personal privacy.
Terrorism / talibinization destroyed local, political and judicial structures in FATA and Malakand region.the tribal areas of Pakistan are governed by Frontier Crime Regulation(FCR).In practice, the local disputes are settled in Jirgas that work in tandem with political agents appointed by federal government 58% men and 32% women mentioned the breakdown of Jirga system and traditional patterns of leadership as the political consequences of terrorism/talibinization.Talibans killed hundreds of local elders. This disturbed the political balance in FATA.The presence of military in FATA in post 9/11 also undermined the authority of political agents the power of jirga and political agents has been assumed by taliban commanders.It was reported that in the beginning of taliban control over their areas.They were able to dispense speedy justice to the poor against the local influential.people were taking their disputes to taliban for resolution. However, very soon the taliban started misusing their power.They started intimidating people that led to disllusionment and loss of support for taliban.The influence of political parties were severely reduced. Political parties were not able to operate in Swat. Political representatives of Swat and FATA could not visit their own consistency due to fear of taliban.Women are traditionally excluded from political decision making structures in conflict areas.Women councillors were subjected to harassment. A women councillor from Dir who was active and very vocal was murdered.

 ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS ON POLITICAL LEADERSHIP

§  LT.General Mushtaq Ahmed Baig the surgeon general of army medical corps killed by Al-Qaeda on sep 11,2001.
§  In DEC 2003, saw two assassination attempts on president Musharraf.
§  An equally serious attempt in july 2004 on then prime minister Mr.SHAUKAT AZIZ.
§  The interior minister is targeted twice during 2007.
§  Succide attacks inside Pakistan increases many folds during 2007.
§  Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated DEC 27,2007 in Rawalpindi by Baitullah Masood and Al-Qaeda.
§  Recently senior minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour was assassinated in DEC 22,2012 in Peshawar after attending his public meeting by Qaladum Tuneem Tehreeq-e-Taliban Pakistan.

GOVERNANCE INDICATOR IN PAKISTAN

VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 20.9.
§  Regional average percentile is 32.8.
§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5)of Pakistan is -1.00.
§  Standard error = 0.12.

POLITICAL STABILITY

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 0.5.
§  Regional average percentile is 18.7.
§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -2.76.
§  Standard error = 0.22.

GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 19.
§  Regional average percentile is 33.5
§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.93.
§  Standard error = 0.18.

REGULATORY QUALITY

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile rank is 33.3.
§  Regional average percentile is 27.7.
§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.50.
§  Standard error = 0.16.

RULE OF LAW

§  In this indicator, Pakistan’s percentile is 19.3.
§  Regional average percentile is 35.8.
§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -0.93.
§  Standard error = 0.14.

CONTROL OF COORUPTION

§  In this indicator , Pakistan’s percentile rank is 13.3.
§  Regional average percentile is 31.6.
§  Governance score (-2.5 to +2.5) of Pakistan is -1.10.
§  Standard error = 0.17.
See figure 2



SOCIAL IMPACT

§  Increase in disable people.
§  Increase in spending on health.
§  Effect on society (consumption, life style).
§  Cost of education rise because of security expenditure which will increase unskilled labour                                                            
§  Injustice, illiteracy, dissatisfaction among people.
§  Poverty and unemployment is prevailing.
§  Food insecurity.
The end sufferer of terrorism is general public. It is general consensus among the social scientists that human corruption and conflicts cannot be done away from the society. The human conflicts results in the form of violence or terrorism.The repercussions of terrorism are very serious for the masses. No doubt, the terrorism not only directly effects the economic development and prosperity but psycho-social repercussions and heavily damage human personality and the society.The effects of terrorism may vary from different persons to different societies. But here, we discuss the general repercussions that harm individual and society accumulatively.
§  Terrorism creates the sense of fear in the minds of people. This fear further leads to sense of  dissatisfaction and terror among the people.
§  Due to terrorism sense of helplessness prevails in human minds. This sense of helplessness further leads to hopelessness among the people regarding their personal and social well-being.
§  The violent acts of terrorism badly damage the mental growth of human beings and put them into constant stressful situation. Such attacks especially leaves harmful and far reaching effects on the minds of children when they see dead bodies and horrible scenes of terrorism.
§  The constant terrorists acts bring about the reason of losing trust and cohesion of people on government and state. It enhances anger and resentment among the masses against the government and the state apparatus.

Conclusion

Pakistan a country of 170 million population and seventh largest army in the world is the frontline state in the war against terrorism. It has suffered huge setbacks in this war but despite all such setbacks and troubles it has faced nuisance of terrorism and extremism with full vigor and zeal. After 9 year of war, Pakistan still is in the dilemma of terrorism and extremism. Major hurdle in fighting such warfare is the lack of adequate resources and training to Pakistan military. The war in terrorism set back the pakistan in the race of development. Today major industries of pakistan like textile, engineering and agriculture migrating to other countries. And also multinational companies are not feeling safe place for business in the Pakistan.
We have briefly discussed the threats being faced by Pakistan. The situation is critical and the response has to be befitting to reduce the threat level. It must be understood that a dangerous game is being played by these states, led by our so-called friend and ally, the United States of America. The majority of the people of Pakistan understand that the US has been an enemy in the guise of a friend and stabbing us in the back along with India while Israel has been playing its role by its lobby's influence in the US.

Nuclear Deterrence

The Pakistani nuclear program has gone from strength to strength, and Pakistan has also now ensured that it has the means of sustaining a surprise attack and still manage to retaliate by deploying a second strike capability. In this regard the key achievements are:
> Pakistan now has deeply buried storage and launch facilities to retain a second strike capability in a nuclear war. 
> In terms of the delivery mechanism (in case the weapons need to be used), Pakistan has multiple means delivery: Fighter aircraft of Pakistan Air Force and surface-to-surface missiles controlled by the Pakistan Army. 
> Pakistan has also accelerated its own missile development program and now has various types of ballistic missiles which are capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Pakistan is also developing nuclear-capable cruise missiles with ground, sea and air-launched versions. Pakistan continues to carry out ballistic missile tests after regular intervals.

Nuclear Doctrine

Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine is formulated to counter the Indian threat and given the level and nature of this threat, Pakistan maintains the option of first-strike. In other words in case of aggression by India, we retain the option to use nuclear weapons first, even if the attack is with conventional weapons. Pakistan's nuclear policy is clear that a “minimum credible deterrent” must be maintained again as a deterrent to Indian military threat.
Pakistan is facing unprecedented threats from multiples sources. The situation is extremely sensitive and volatile and the response has to be carefully calculated and managed. An emotional or hasty response can compromise the national interest and our strategic assets. The ISI and the armed forces confront the enemies. The nation must wise up and avoid falling into the trap being laid by the enemy. Vicious media campaigns, half-baked truths and twisted facts are being used not only by the American and Zionist media but also by their agents planted in our local media houses. People must not accept all the news given to them on popular channels. They have to make the effort of corroborating news and information from independent sources to understand the complete picture. Partial truth is often as dangerous as total lies; twisted news is often made up of facts mixed with some fictional elements.The nation must be ready to face any threatening development and everyone must stand firm with the Armed forces. 
Police should participate actively in controlling the crimes; they are participating to some extent by arresting the criminals and those who are threats to our national integrity. In Karachi police arrested many target killers. There should be high security for ordinary people as well.
We must believe in this quote of founder of Pakistan, M.A. Jinnah:
“Pakistan has come to stay and no power on earth can destroy it”.


CRIMES AND NARCOTICS

CRIMES AND NARCOTICS

Crime

A crime occurs when someone breaks the law by an overt act, omission or neglect that can result in punishment. A person who has violated a law, or has breached a rule, is said to have committed a criminal offense.

Omission Can Be a Crime

There are also crimes that are neither violent nor involve property damage. Running a stop sign is a crime, because it puts the public in danger, even though no one is injured and no property is damaged. If the law is not obeyed, there could be injury and damage.

Causes of crime

There is a combination of factors behind a person who commits a crime. Our family values,education, political, law enforcement, and economy have alot to do with potential criminal activities of individuals. Some reasons for committing a crime could be pride, jealousy, revenge, anger, or greed. Some crimes are carefully planned out very well in order to advance to increase gain and decrease risk. Criminals tend to make the choices about this behavior and consider a life of crime as a full time job. They believe that crime brings to them a greater reward, excitement, and admiration, until they are caught. Other criminals might get an adrenaline rush when they successfully carry out a dangerous crime.

Types of Crimes

 There are two main categories of crime: property crime and violent crime:

Property crimes

                    A property crime is committed when someone damages, destroys or steals someone else's property, such as stealing a car or vandalizing a building. Property crimes are by far the most commonly committed crime.
                   Crimes against property are not as obvious as they sound. Although they deal with damage or theft of physical property, sometimes they also involve harm or threat to individuals. When people are involved, the penalties for crimes against property can increase a great deal.

Arson Destroys Property

                Arson is a crime against property. The seriousness of penalties often depends on whether anyone was inside the property at the time it was set on fire. When an owner sets fire to his own property to make an insurance claim, this is usually a felony.

Vandalism and Defacement

              Even if property is not totally destroyed, damaging it is still a crime. Spray-painting someone's automobile, digging up a public garden, or throwing a rock to break someone's window are all examples of vandalism or defacement. These are crimes against property.

Theft Is a Property Crime

Stealing is a complicated property crime because it falls into so many different categories. Theft is the most minor charge. Theft involves taking something that doesn't belong to you. You might see a laptop sitting untended on a park bench, pick it up, and carry it off. The value of what you take usually determines the penalty. If you shoplift a tube of lipstick, it would be a misdemeanor.

Burglary Is More Serious Than Theft

Burglary involves entering a building to take something, and it can be a felony if was another person is inside the building when you enter. Burglary also includes entering any other type of property, such as someone's automobile or a storage facility.

Some Property Crimes Are Less Obvious

Some property crimes may seem so minor, you're not even aware you're breaking the law. For example, it's illegal to hook into your neighbor's television cable hookup. Technically, you're stealing something that your neighbor has paid for - the signal from the cable provider.

Automobiles Are Property

Automobile crimes include auto theft and carjacking. Auto theft involves stealing a parked vehicle. Carjacking is more serious, because the owner is driving the vehicle at the time you take it.

Violent crimes

 A violent crime occurs when someone harms, attempts to harm, threatens to harm or even conspires to harm someone else. Violent crimes are offenses which involve force or threat of force, such as rape, robbery or homicide.
 The category of crimes against people includes crimes such as murder, rape, assault, child abuse and sexual harassment.

Murder or homicide

Murder is the unlawful killing, of another human, and generally this state of mind distinguishes murder from other forms of unlawful homicide (such as manslaughter). As the loss of a human being inflicts enormous grief upon the individuals close to the victim, and the commission of a murder is highly detrimental to the good order within society, most societies both present and in antiquity have considered it a most serious crime worthy of the harshest of punishment. In most countries, a person convicted of murder is typically given a long prison sentence, possibly a life sentence where permitted, and in some countries, the death penalty may be imposed for such an act though this practice is becoming less common.


 Rape

Rape is a type of sexual assault usually involving sexual intercourse, which is initiated by one or more persons against another person without that person's consent. The act may be carried out by physical force, coercion, abuse of authority or with a person who is incapable of valid consent. The term is most often defined in criminal law.

Child abuse

   Child abuse is the physical, sexual or emotional mistreatment or neglect of a child or children
The four main types are physical, sexual, psychological, and neglect.

Physical abuse

Physical abuse involves physical aggression directed at a child by an adult. Most nations with child-abuse laws consider the deliberate infliction of serious injuries, or actions that place the child at obvious risk of serious injury or death, to be illegal. Physical abuse is the intentional or non-accidental production of a physical injury. Bruises, scratches, burns, broken bones, lacerations, as well as repeated mishaps and rough treatment that could cause physical injury, are the results of physical abuse.

Sexual abuse

Child sexual abuse is a form of child abuse in which an adult or older adolescent abuses a child for sexual stimulation. Sexual abuse refers to the participation of a child in a sexual act aimed toward the physical gratification or the financial profit of the person committing the act.
Effects of child sexual abuse include guilt and self-blame, flashbacks, nightmares, insomnia, fear of things associated with the abuse (including objects, smells places, doctor's visits, etc.).

Psychological/emotional abuse

Emotional abuse is defined as the production of psychological and social deficits in the growth of a child as a result of behavior such as loud yelling, coarse and rude attitude, inattention, harsh criticism, torture, withholding communication and humiliation.

Sexual harassment

Sexual harassment is bullying or coercion of a sexual nature, or the unwelcome or inappropriate promise of rewards in exchange for sexual favors.In most modern legal contexts, sexual harassment is illegal.

Narcotics

The term narcotic originally referred medically to any psychoactive compound with any sleep-inducing properties
Narcotics are a mix of legal and illegal drugs that include opium and its derivatives- opiates, morphine, heroin and others.
As drugs, both legal and illegal, narcotics are highly addictive, so any prescribed opiate-based medication needs to be taken as instructed and under strict doctor’s supervision.

Alcohol

Alcohol is a depressant that affects every part of your body. The damage it does now can impact the rest of your life.
Drink, booze, brew, hooch, moonshine.
Alcohol is a depressant derived from the natural fermentation of fruits, vegetables and grains. These are brewed and distilled into a wide range of beverages with various alcohol contents.

The Risks

           It will loosen a person up and help him/her to relax. It can damage the part of brain that controls coordination, memory, judgment and decision-making. Drinking made dumber slur the words, lose coordination and reactions will become slower.
      Effects of alcohol can overwhelm the body's defenses. Unable to move and think clearly, you can do stupid, risky and reckless things that are unsafe, or even lethal.

Cocaine

Cocaine is a highly addictive drug that can be risky even the first time.
Blow, bump, candy, Charlie, coke, snow
Powder cocaine is a hydrochloride salt derived from the processed leaves of the coca plant.

The Risks

To smoke or snort it for the first time the blood vessels constrict immediately. This increases heart rate, blood pressure and body temperature. At first, this may make sweaty and shaky, but seizures, cardiac arrest and even death. Because it's so highly addictive, it's easy to get hooked, and the long-term effects can get really ugly.

Mushrooms

Some people think that because they're natural, that means they're okay to ingest. But the truth is that hallucinogenic mushrooms are a natural poison that can harm the body and mind.

Magic mushrooms, caps, boomers
The active chemical in hallucinogenic mushrooms is called psilocybin. This chemical is found in approximately 190 species of edible mushrooms. Hallucinogenic mushrooms have a high potential for abuse.

The Risks

Mushrooms work by disrupting how your nerve cells and the neurotransmitter serotonin interact throughout the brain and spinal cord. By changing the normal functioning of serotonin in the brain, mushrooms distort the way you process information and can make you hallucinate (it becomes difficult to tell the difference between fantasy and reality). You may see, feel and hear things that don't exist. You can also have rapid and intense emotional mood swings.

Inhalants

Inhalants are simply toxic chemical vapors. Sniff, huff or inhale these chemicals can easily damage the brain or shut it down forever.
Laughing gas, poppers, snappers, whippets.
Inhalants can be found in a range of products, like paint thinners, glues, cleaning products, gases, lighter fluids and aerosol spray.

The Risks

Inhalants are highly toxic substances that produce dangerous chemical vapors. "Sudden sniffing death" can happen to a completely healthy young person from a single session of inhalant use. Inhalants produce effects similar to those of anesthesia. They slow the body down, produce a numbing feeling and can cause unconsciousness. Inhaling concentrated amounts of these chemicals can cause heart failure, suffocation, convulsions, seizures and coma. Inhalants go through the lungs and into the bloodstream, and are quickly distributed to the brain and other organs in the body. .Inhalants can also do damage to the heart, lungs, liver and kidneys. Prolonged abuse can permanently affect thinking, movement, vision and hearing.

TOBACCO & NICOTINE

Tobacco is a carrier for the highly addictive drug nicotine. Once the body gets a taste for nicotine, it can quickly become a life-long addiction, with extremely fatal consequences.
(Cigarettes) smokes, cigs or butts. (Smokeless tobacco) chew, dip, spit tobacco, snuff
Nicotine is the main drug in all forms of tobacco. Nicotine acts as both a stimulant and a sedative.

The Risks

Smoking harms the immune system and can affect nearly every organ of the body. When you smoke, it's not only the nicotine that's dangerous, but also chemicals in tobacco like carbon monoxide, tar, formaldehyde, cyanide and ammonia-many of which are known carcinogens (cancer-causing poisons). Carbon monoxide keeps red blood cells from getting the full load of oxygen needed for healthy cellular growth. Chewing or sniffing tobacco is just as dangerous as smoking and also has a high risk of addiction. And prolonged use of smokeless tobacco leads to a high risk of cancers of the mouth. Bidis and hookahs have become popular alternatives to smoking cigarettes and some people seem to think they are less harmful than regular cigarettes. The truth is that hookah smoke still delivers addictive nicotine, and bidis actually have more nicotine than cigarettes. So both are at least as toxic as cigarettes, with bidis having the potential to be even more harmful.
Crime rate in Pakistan is very high due to which people are restricted to their places. There are many reasons of these crimes; government should take step to eradicate these evils from society. And should support people in problems.
Smuggling should be restricted. And the shops should be checked. Government should formulate medical research department to check the amount of alcohol in medicines.
Now a day’sbidi, hukka and sheesha are a fashion statement especially for teenagers. Media should spread awareness on effects of theseevils. These are life threatening things, the stores where these are available should be banned by government and the shop owner should be punished.

 

INTERNAL SECURITY THREATS TO PAKISTAN

INTERNAL SECURITY THREATS TO PAKISTAN


The paper focused on the myriad threats that are challenging the internal security situation within Pakistan and the implications of the threats for the region. In discussing the above, the author widely classified the threats under the following heads:
Ø  militancy in Pakistan,
Ø  radicalization in Pakistan,
Ø  ethnic dissent,
Ø   sectarian strife,
Ø  energy shortage,
Ø   paucity of water and
Ø  economic downslide to be the causal factors of instability within the country

Militancy in Pakistan

Beginning with militancy in Pakistan, it is stated that Pakistan was witnessing a massive spurt in violence by militant groups due to its self-defeating policy of using jihadis in War in Afghanistan during 1979-1989 and its romance with the Taliban later. The Taliban connection has radicalized Pakistani society in an irreversible manner. In recent times, Pakistan is facing an insurgency waged by a network of militants under the banner of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or Pakistani Taliban. It seeks to undermine the writ of Pakistani law and establish Sharia all over. The TTP has perpetrated hundreds of suicide attacks and justified their action as jihad against the enemies of Islam. Even investigations into recent spate of attacks like Mehran Naval Base have established TTP’s links with the Al Qaeda. That apart, suicide bombings and kidnappings have become common and preferred option for the militants as major source of funding. Most of the groups involved in such activities emanate from the tribal areas of Pakistan like Jandola, Waziristan and so on. Pakistan Army’s operations and well-coordinated drone attacks by the US agencies have not been effective. They have only led to regrouping of the militants and further radicalisation and violence. It has also led to a huge population of internally displaced people who suffer hardships that create dissent against the government.
In the last few years, the security establishment in Pakistan had focused almost exclusively on the country's northwest, a single-minded focus that many believe has in part allowed for the recent spike in instability and security challenges in Pakistan's biggest city and commercial capital Karachi and increasing terrorist attacks in the Punjab. The PIPS report indicates that apart from political, ethnic and gang violence in Karachi, a growing nexus of militant groups and criminals operating in its urban maze has led to increased security threats and eruptions of violence in the city. For instance, a small terrorist cell led by one Dr. Abdullah linked to the group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi confessed last June to robbing seven banks in Karachi, with the help of criminal gangs. He then spent the money on buying weapons and explosives for terrorist attacks. Additionally, Pakistan's cultural capital, Lahore, witnessed 44 attacks in 2010 compared to 11 in 2009. And the restive province of Balochistan was the country's most violent province in the year 2010. The province witnessed a seven percent decrease in the overall number of violent attacks as compared to 2009, but the number of killings increased by 43 percent over the previous year. Finally, the security situation remains precarious in FATA. Despite (or perhaps in part because of) the ongoing military operations in South Waziristan, Bajaur and Orakzai tribal agencies, the number of terrorist attacks in the tribal areas went up by 28 percent in 2010 compared to the previous year.

Influence of External Forces in Pakistan

At the same time, Pakistan and its partners in the war on terror need to come to a consensus about a possible military operation in North Waziristan Agency, the base for the Afghanistan-focused Haqqani network as well as many foreign fighters operating in the tribal areas. Militants dislodged from North Waziristan could infiltrate and establish strongholds in Afghanistan, further destabilizing the situation in that country's east, and making things more dangerous for American troops. The rationale of such an operation also needs to be considered in the context of other developments taking place in the region, particularly the overtures in Afghanistan including an increasingly reconciliatory approach towards and efforts for a political dialogue with the Taliban. Any military strategy must be in synch with the political approach. At the same time, Islamabad needs to convince its partners that it considers the Pakistani Taliban groups, against whom military operation have been going on in other parts of FATA, as well as the Haqqani network, as much of a threat for Pakistan as they are for Afghanistan. It would perhaps be best for all concerned if Pakistan were to launch a precise operation in North Waziristan after considering its merits and demerits and after reaching a consensus with all its partners.

Radicalization of The State

Next threat that discussed was that of radicalisation of the state. The forces of radical Islam, have managed to infect the social and political fabric of Pakistan. The onward march towards extremist politics in Pakistan can be termed as Talibanisation. The type of education imparted in the Madrassas is not the only reason for rise of militancy in Pakistan. Exploitation of popular grievances against unequal social, political and economic systems by the extremists has also fueled such a marked rise in militancy. The excessive importance given by the Pakistani leadership to religious elements, especially during Zia ul Haq’s regime, has also given a fillip to such extremism where the clergy was allowed to participate in political activities. Such links nourished over time have emboldened these elements to make demands for Islamisation of the Pakistan state.
The killings of Salman Taseer and Shahbaaz Bhatti for advocating amendments to blasphemy law are indicators of the extent of radicalization in the Pakistani Society and state today. The process of radicalisation has crept into the army as well although the extent of such penetration remains a matter of debate. Some of the officers supposedly have links with religious groups like Tabhlighi Jamat, even as its activities are banned in the garrison. The political parties and civil society groups have failed to take on these radical elements because they are either sympathetic towards them or afraid of raising their voice, and thus militancy in the name of religion will have broader support base in the country in times to come.



Autonomy On The Basis Of Ethnicity

Another issue that impinges on internal situation in Pakistan is that of the rise of nationalist movements demanding autonomy or independence on the basis of their ethnic identities. Insurgency in:

Ø  Balochistan is the most important example here. Balochistan has been wrecked by insurgency for more than six decades. The grievances of Baloch population have been that they were made to forcibly accede to Pakistan and subjected to colonisation by the Pakistani state, which has exploited all their natural resources and treated them as second class citizens. The Baloch insurgents have routinely carried out attacks on gas pipelines, railway lines, other critical infrastructure and military establishments. The government in Islamabad has always used heavy force to quell the movement over the year leading to total alienation of the people there. However, the recent US congressional hearing on Balochistan has stirred up unease in Pakistan over the issue.
Ø  That apart, dissent has been reported over renaming of the erstwhile North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by the non-Pashtuns of the region like the Hazaras who want a separate province for themselves.
Ø  Similar instances of demand for separate province have been reported from Karachi, FATA, and Sindh etc. Also demand for creation of a separate Seraiki province within Punjab has made its way into parliamentary debates. Seraiki activists have been demanding creation of new province for themselves comprising 17distritcs in south western Punjab. However, these demands are proving a continuous challenge for the government and a major hindrance to development and resource distribution. All these unrests have the potential to turn into secessionist movements, unless they are addressed well.

Sectarian Strife

On the other hand, sectarian strife has also engulfed the country. There is a major strife between the Shias and the Sunnis. Pakistan being a Sunni majority country, minority sects have been at the receiving end for a long time. In the 1950s, there was a nationwide movement against the Ahmadiyas, by both the Sunnis and the Shias, which resulted in their being declared as non-Muslims in 1974. Since the Shi’ite revolution in Iran in 1979, the Sunnis of Pakistan have trained their guns on the Shias. Zia’s Islamisation drive also accentuated the divide between these groups during this period. The Talibanisation process has now resulted in violence between different Sunni groups like the Deobandis and the Barelvis. Suicide bombings in Barelvi places of worship are quite regular these days. The growing sectarian violence in Pakistan casts a dark shadow on the future of Pakistan.
The last three of threats mentioned are centred on energy, water and economic downslide which have the potential to become bigger threats if they are not tackled with care. All of them are interlinked in many ways.


Energy Crisis

Energy crisis for last few years has had its impact on Pakistani economy and triggered mass unrest throughout the country.

Water Issue

Water has also become another source of concern in Pakistan. Pakistan, being a water stressed country, is going to face water scarcity due to high growth in population. Since large amount of water has been diverted upstream to Punjab, the rivers have dried up in downstream Sindh. This in turn has affected the agricultural sector. The thinning of Himalayan glaciers due to global warming has affected water flow in the Indus basin. Division of river water on an ad hoc basis to favor the requirements of Punjab has also resulted in smaller provinces of Pakistan accusing it of monopolizing a crucial resource. Water related issues, like floods and poor availability, are increasingly being discussed in Pakistan as instances of Indian insensitivity towards Pakistani needs. There is a conscious effort in Pakistan to brand India as a country determined to turn Pakistan into a desert. This is likely to have repercussions for India-Pakistan relations.
Lastly economic downslide has hit Pakistan in a major way since the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has declined to 2.4 per cent. There has been significant growth in the service sector compared to the agricultural sector which proves the rural-urban divide in Pakistan. Insurgency and terrorism have also taken its toll on the economy with general investment climate in the country going down. Even recent floods have affected Pakistani economy massively.

Indus Water Treaty

Pakistan’s relations with India will acquire a new dimension with Pakistan accusing India of water scarcity in the country. Several sections in Pakistan hold that India has denied Pakistan its legitimate share of water under the Indus Water Treaty. This has become a fresh irritant in Indo-Pak relations. Presently, India and Pakistan are agreeing to better trade relations, however, this could be affected by the anti-India rhetoric being peddled by right wing elements in Pakistan who are raising the water bogey and arguing against any rapprochement with India. Also elements within the Pakistani establishment committed to destabilize India and take Kashmir away by force could ratchet up tensions with India.
The decline in the number of terrorist incidents in the previous year may give a sense of relief to many in Islamabad, but Pakistan remained the country most affected by terrorism during 2010. PIPS' 2010 report reveals that the overall decrease was due to a significant fall in the number of terrorist attacks in KPK-60 percent to be precise-compared to 2009. This decline has partly been attributed to Pakistan's military operations in the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA) bordering Afghanistan, improved surveillance by law enforcement agencies and death of key militants in U.S. drone strikes in FATA. However, sustainable security remains elusive in KPK because of the less than impressive performance of a weak political administration in KPK beset by chronic challenges of poor governance.
The major points that emerged from the discussion were;
  1. Apart from the madrassa system of education, the secular system of education in Pakistan is equally to be blamed for the rising radicalization and this needs to be studied.
  2. The failure of the government in handling the extremist elements needs to be studied more.
  3. Role of Islam should have been in an entirely different section.
  4. Centrality of India as the primary enemy needs to be factored in the discussion along with relations with US and the endgame in Afghanistan.
  5. Implications needed more in-depth analysis and study.
  6. Issue of sectarian strife is an important issue which needs to be mentioned in more detail.